After a slower-than-expected housing market through much of 2026, there are some encouraging signs heading into 2027. According to the British Columbia Real Estate Association’s August 2026 Housing Forecast Update, the long-awaited recovery in BC real estate appears to be getting underway — although BCREA expects it to be gradual rather than a dramatic rebound. 

For British Columbia as a whole, BCREA is forecasting approximately 74,500 residential sales in 2027, up from an estimated 69,325 in 2026. That represents an increase of about 7.5%. The provincial average MLS® price is also forecast to recover from approximately $941,800 in 2026 to $967,400 in 2027, an increase of 2.7%. 

For those of us on Vancouver Island, the forecast is particularly interesting. BCREA expects Vancouver Island sales to increase from approximately 7,000 homes in 2026 to 7,500 in 2027 — a 7.1% increase. Prices, however, are expected to remain relatively stable. The average Vancouver Island MLS® price is forecast to move from approximately $760,000 in 2026 to $765,000 in 2027, an increase of just 0.7%. 

That combination of stronger sales and relatively flat prices could make 2027 a more balanced market. Buyers may become more active as confidence improves, while the amount of inventory currently available should help keep significant upward pressure on prices in check.

One factor that may surprise some buyers is that BCREA is not forecasting a significant decline in mortgage rates. Five-year fixed mortgage rates are expected to average approximately 4.75% in 2027. BCREA also notes that markets are anticipating a short Bank of Canada tightening cycle in 2027, potentially bringing the overnight rate back to 2.75%. Variable mortgage rates could therefore move higher during the latter half of the year. 

There are also reasons for cautious optimism in the broader economy. BCREA forecasts BC real GDP growth improving from 1.5% in 2026 to 2.3% in 2027, while employment growth is forecast to improve from just 0.2% to 1.8%. The unemployment rate is projected to decline from 6.5% to 6.1%. At the same time, BCREA continues to identify risks from US tariffs, geopolitical uncertainty and slower population growth resulting from changes to federal immigration policy. 

What Does This Mean for Vancouver Island Buyers and Sellers?

If BCREA’s forecast proves accurate, 2027 may be less about rapidly increasing home prices and more about increased market activity.

For sellers, that could mean a larger pool of active buyers compared with 2026. However, with Vancouver Island prices forecast to increase by less than 1%, pricing a property correctly will continue to be extremely important. Buyers have had considerably more inventory to choose from, and properties that are priced too aggressively may continue to sit on the market.

For buyers, the forecast suggests that waiting for substantially lower prices or dramatically lower mortgage rates may not necessarily pay off. Prices on Vancouver Island are expected to remain relatively stable, while sales activity is forecast to increase. A more active market could mean increased competition for the better properties even without significant overall price growth.

The biggest takeaway from BCREA’s latest forecast is that 2027 is shaping up to be a recovery year rather than a boom year. For Vancouver Island, a forecast 7.1% increase in sales combined with just 0.7% price growth points toward a healthier and more active market without the rapid price escalation we experienced in previous years.

For anyone considering buying or selling in Parksville, Qualicum Beach, Nanaimo or elsewhere on Central Vancouver Island, local market conditions will still matter considerably more than provincial averages. Understanding recent comparable sales, current inventory and what is happening within a particular neighbourhood or development will remain an important part of making a good real estate decision.

Forecast figures and economic outlook are based on the British Columbia Real Estate Association’s August 2026 Third Quarter Housing Forecast Update. Forecasts are subject to change. 

https://www.bcrea.bc.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026-08-20-housing-forecast-update_.pdf